Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
